Coronavirus Thread of Doom

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eumaas
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by eumaas »

Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:36pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
(Being charitable, I suppose) I do understand that at a certain point the virus becomes endemic and then the kind of testing we're doing doesn't make as much sense but ahhhhhh it's very unclear to me that we're at that point. A LOT of it is based on the assumption that natural infection provides robust protection, making it safe for the folks who "made the right choice," and there just doesn't seem to be concrete evidence of that. I mean, we'll find out, I guess. Love to be part of a massive global experiment in infectious disease!
yeah from what I’ve seen reinfection is still possible and hospitalization chance goes up with each reinfection. plus letting it spread and mutate uncontrolled is a good environment for more strains to develop.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
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I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

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Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:36pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
(Being charitable, I suppose) I do understand that at a certain point the virus becomes endemic and then the kind of testing we're doing doesn't make as much sense but ahhhhhh it's very unclear to me that we're at that point. A LOT of it is based on the assumption that natural infection provides robust protection, making it safe for the folks who "made the right choice," and there just doesn't seem to be concrete evidence of that. I mean, we'll find out, I guess. Love to be part of a massive global experiment in infectious disease!
Right, we aren't naive and think that we'll small pox this into oblivion; we're just trying to get to a point where hospitals aren't overloaded. Which means thorough vaccination and letting those who are insisting on dying from it do so. Getting a sense of the prevalence is blindingly obvious.
"I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey-strong bowels were girded with strength, like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung." - Richard Nixon, Checkers Speech, abandoned early draft

Inder
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Inder »

eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 12:52pm
Inder wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 12:48pm
The good news is that the government is getting rid of free rapid tests, so positive cases will continue to decline. :shifty:
That's what we've done here in Colorado. And good news! Even though covid is on the rise in wastewater measuring we aren't seeing a commensurate rise in confirmed individual testing, which means covid isn't really here! Huzzah!
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
Locally, the other consideration is that there's a provincial election coming up and so we're now Back to Business™ and everything's fine and those billions of dollars from the federal government that the Tories refused to spend on COVID relief will likely be part of a budget splurge.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by eumaas »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 2:11pm
Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:36pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
(Being charitable, I suppose) I do understand that at a certain point the virus becomes endemic and then the kind of testing we're doing doesn't make as much sense but ahhhhhh it's very unclear to me that we're at that point. A LOT of it is based on the assumption that natural infection provides robust protection, making it safe for the folks who "made the right choice," and there just doesn't seem to be concrete evidence of that. I mean, we'll find out, I guess. Love to be part of a massive global experiment in infectious disease!
Right, we aren't naive and think that we'll small pox this into oblivion; we're just trying to get to a point where hospitals aren't overloaded. Which means thorough vaccination and letting those who are insisting on dying from it do so. Getting a sense of the prevalence is blindingly obvious.
One problem there is the virus doesn’t sit still. It keeps mutating and vaccination efficacy lags behind. Vaccine is more mitigation than complete prevention. If it’s spreading around in an uncontrolled way (especially among the unvaxxed) it gets challenging to keep up with. I’m not sure this let it ride approach is going to work long term.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

eumaas
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by eumaas »

But to be fair I’m on the authoritarian end of this—pro-lockdown and mandatory vax (with exemption for medical conditions of course). More or less where Zizek sits I think.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Dr. Medulla »

Inder wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 3:39pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 12:52pm
Inder wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 12:48pm
The good news is that the government is getting rid of free rapid tests, so positive cases will continue to decline. :shifty:
That's what we've done here in Colorado. And good news! Even though covid is on the rise in wastewater measuring we aren't seeing a commensurate rise in confirmed individual testing, which means covid isn't really here! Huzzah!
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
Locally, the other consideration is that there's a provincial election coming up and so we're now Back to Business™ and everything's fine and those billions of dollars from the federal government that the Tories refused to spend on COVID relief will likely be part of a budget splurge.
And it could seriously backfire if we have an explosion of cases that leads to renewed restrictions again, making Dougie look incompetent. He's been lucky that the prairie provinces have been so fucking bad at managing this that he looks comparatively capable.
"I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey-strong bowels were girded with strength, like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung." - Richard Nixon, Checkers Speech, abandoned early draft

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Dr. Medulla »

eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 4:51pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 2:11pm
Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:36pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
(Being charitable, I suppose) I do understand that at a certain point the virus becomes endemic and then the kind of testing we're doing doesn't make as much sense but ahhhhhh it's very unclear to me that we're at that point. A LOT of it is based on the assumption that natural infection provides robust protection, making it safe for the folks who "made the right choice," and there just doesn't seem to be concrete evidence of that. I mean, we'll find out, I guess. Love to be part of a massive global experiment in infectious disease!
Right, we aren't naive and think that we'll small pox this into oblivion; we're just trying to get to a point where hospitals aren't overloaded. Which means thorough vaccination and letting those who are insisting on dying from it do so. Getting a sense of the prevalence is blindingly obvious.
One problem there is the virus doesn’t sit still. It keeps mutating and vaccination efficacy lags behind. Vaccine is more mitigation than complete prevention. If it’s spreading around in an uncontrolled way (especially among the unvaxxed) it gets challenging to keep up with. I’m not sure this let it ride approach is going to work long term.
From what I've read, the speculation is that mutations will likely be less lethal so as to better spread. Taking hold in the upper respiratory system makes it more viable to spread, but less lethal to the host.
"I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey-strong bowels were girded with strength, like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung." - Richard Nixon, Checkers Speech, abandoned early draft

eumaas
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by eumaas »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 5:32pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 4:51pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 2:11pm
Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:36pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:17pm
I still remember long ago when Trump was ridiculed for saying fewer tests, fewer cases. Now it's policy!
(Being charitable, I suppose) I do understand that at a certain point the virus becomes endemic and then the kind of testing we're doing doesn't make as much sense but ahhhhhh it's very unclear to me that we're at that point. A LOT of it is based on the assumption that natural infection provides robust protection, making it safe for the folks who "made the right choice," and there just doesn't seem to be concrete evidence of that. I mean, we'll find out, I guess. Love to be part of a massive global experiment in infectious disease!
Right, we aren't naive and think that we'll small pox this into oblivion; we're just trying to get to a point where hospitals aren't overloaded. Which means thorough vaccination and letting those who are insisting on dying from it do so. Getting a sense of the prevalence is blindingly obvious.
One problem there is the virus doesn’t sit still. It keeps mutating and vaccination efficacy lags behind. Vaccine is more mitigation than complete prevention. If it’s spreading around in an uncontrolled way (especially among the unvaxxed) it gets challenging to keep up with. I’m not sure this let it ride approach is going to work long term.
From what I've read, the speculation is that mutations will likely be less lethal so as to better spread. Taking hold in the upper respiratory system makes it more viable to spread, but less lethal to the host.
I've gathered rather the opposite, that there is no innate tendency to less lethality:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunking ... d=82052581

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... it-evolves

Usually the key to viral persistence is not to kill the host too quickly. One of the reasons the hemorrhagic fever viruses don't usually reach big epidemic to pandemic levels is burning through the infected too quickly and killing too many. The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic didn't go quite as expected as it hung around for a lot longer than was the norm. As I recall one thing we learned was that survivors had a higher viral load for way longer than we thought (memorably a survivor managed to transmit the virus via his semen well after he'd recovered!).

Lethality does affect the spread and persistence, but there isn't necessarily an inherent tendency to become less lethal. Really effective natural immunity can take generations. With the Covid vaccines the efficacy also wanes over time, thus the boosters (in addition to strains getting around them). With Covid we have little innate immunity and the virus has been mutating quite fast so it's hard to predict. It's possible it may trend towards less lethal but not guaranteed.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

Dr. Medulla
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Dr. Medulla »

eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 5:47pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 5:32pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 4:51pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 2:11pm
Flex wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 1:36pm


(Being charitable, I suppose) I do understand that at a certain point the virus becomes endemic and then the kind of testing we're doing doesn't make as much sense but ahhhhhh it's very unclear to me that we're at that point. A LOT of it is based on the assumption that natural infection provides robust protection, making it safe for the folks who "made the right choice," and there just doesn't seem to be concrete evidence of that. I mean, we'll find out, I guess. Love to be part of a massive global experiment in infectious disease!
Right, we aren't naive and think that we'll small pox this into oblivion; we're just trying to get to a point where hospitals aren't overloaded. Which means thorough vaccination and letting those who are insisting on dying from it do so. Getting a sense of the prevalence is blindingly obvious.
One problem there is the virus doesn’t sit still. It keeps mutating and vaccination efficacy lags behind. Vaccine is more mitigation than complete prevention. If it’s spreading around in an uncontrolled way (especially among the unvaxxed) it gets challenging to keep up with. I’m not sure this let it ride approach is going to work long term.
From what I've read, the speculation is that mutations will likely be less lethal so as to better spread. Taking hold in the upper respiratory system makes it more viable to spread, but less lethal to the host.
I've gathered rather the opposite, that there is no innate tendency to less lethality:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunking ... d=82052581

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... it-evolves

Usually the key to viral persistence is not to kill the host too quickly. One of the reasons the hemorrhagic fever viruses don't usually reach big epidemic to pandemic levels is burning through the infected too quickly and killing too many. The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic didn't go quite as expected as it hung around for a lot longer than was the norm. As I recall one thing we learned was that survivors had a higher viral load for way longer than we thought (memorably a survivor managed to transmit the virus via his semen well after he'd recovered!).

Lethality does affect the spread and persistence, but there isn't necessarily an inherent tendency to become less lethal. Really effective natural immunity can take generations. With the Covid vaccines the efficacy also wanes over time, thus the boosters (in addition to strains getting around them). With Covid we have little innate immunity and the virus has been mutating quite fast so it's hard to predict. It's possible it may trend towards less lethal but not guaranteed.
Yeah, the speed of the mutation is what's really scary. A few weeks ago, I read a piece about studying those with seeming natural immunity. One person taking part had been exposed over and over, yet nothing. So now she's getting concentrated exposure. Figuring out why the virus doesn't take hold in those people has a lot of promise.
"I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey-strong bowels were girded with strength, like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung." - Richard Nixon, Checkers Speech, abandoned early draft

Low Down Low
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Low Down Low »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 6:00pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 5:47pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 5:32pm
eumaas wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 4:51pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 2:11pm


Right, we aren't naive and think that we'll small pox this into oblivion; we're just trying to get to a point where hospitals aren't overloaded. Which means thorough vaccination and letting those who are insisting on dying from it do so. Getting a sense of the prevalence is blindingly obvious.
One problem there is the virus doesn’t sit still. It keeps mutating and vaccination efficacy lags behind. Vaccine is more mitigation than complete prevention. If it’s spreading around in an uncontrolled way (especially among the unvaxxed) it gets challenging to keep up with. I’m not sure this let it ride approach is going to work long term.
From what I've read, the speculation is that mutations will likely be less lethal so as to better spread. Taking hold in the upper respiratory system makes it more viable to spread, but less lethal to the host.
I've gathered rather the opposite, that there is no innate tendency to less lethality:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunking ... d=82052581

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... it-evolves

Usually the key to viral persistence is not to kill the host too quickly. One of the reasons the hemorrhagic fever viruses don't usually reach big epidemic to pandemic levels is burning through the infected too quickly and killing too many. The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic didn't go quite as expected as it hung around for a lot longer than was the norm. As I recall one thing we learned was that survivors had a higher viral load for way longer than we thought (memorably a survivor managed to transmit the virus via his semen well after he'd recovered!).

Lethality does affect the spread and persistence, but there isn't necessarily an inherent tendency to become less lethal. Really effective natural immunity can take generations. With the Covid vaccines the efficacy also wanes over time, thus the boosters (in addition to strains getting around them). With Covid we have little innate immunity and the virus has been mutating quite fast so it's hard to predict. It's possible it may trend towards less lethal but not guaranteed.
Yeah, the speed of the mutation is what's really scary. A few weeks ago, I read a piece about studying those with seeming natural immunity. One person taking part had been exposed over and over, yet nothing. So now she's getting concentrated exposure. Figuring out why the virus doesn't take hold in those people has a lot of promise.
Am sure I read the same piece, or something very simular. A girl in one of the trials, basically having infected droplets shoved down her nostrils and yet the virus just wouldn't grip. I think one theory was it could be genetic but nobody seemed sure. I would certainly have some faith in medical science moving us forward because otherwise I can just see the same mistakes being repeated the next time a global crisis strikes, whether 20, 30 or 50 years down the line. The politicians will just fuck it again because they always do.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Dr. Medulla »

Low Down Low wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 6:22pm
Am sure I read the same piece, or something very simular. A girl in one of the trials, basically having infected droplets shoved down her nostrils and yet the virus just wouldn't grip. I think one theory was it could be genetic but nobody seemed sure.
Right—pretty sure it was in the Guardian. She said that her family just doesn't get colds.
I would certainly have some faith in medical science moving us forward because otherwise I can just see the same mistakes being repeated the next time a global crisis strikes, whether 20, 30 or 50 years down the line. The politicians will just fuck it again because they always do.
The politicians will resist the science if it requires sacrifice and angers their base. So, yes, fucked.
"I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey-strong bowels were girded with strength, like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung." - Richard Nixon, Checkers Speech, abandoned early draft

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by JennyB »

I'm going to get my fourth shot tomorrow I think.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Flex »

JennyB wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 6:39pm
I'm going to get my fourth shot tomorrow I think.
4th shot! 4th shot!

They've somehow made the eligibility even more confusing than ever before in this round. I assume it's like the others and if you want you can just get one in any case.

My wife got a J&J first round then a Moderna booster, so I think she's recommended to get another booster now, right? I've read some websites that say "yes" and some that say "only if BOTH her previous shots were J&J". So weird that people have trouble figuring this shit out.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Dr. Medulla »

JennyB wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 6:39pm
I'm going to get my fourth shot tomorrow I think.
I think up here people at high risk have been greenlit, but the rest of us are just waiting. I look forward to enduring a couple days of the Boss being in misery because she can't handle her vaccinations. :rolleyes:
"I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey-strong bowels were girded with strength, like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung." - Richard Nixon, Checkers Speech, abandoned early draft

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Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom

Post by Sparky »

JennyB wrote:
31 Mar 2022, 6:39pm
I'm going to get my fourth shot tomorrow I think.
We plan on getting our 4th shot, but are trying to wait 6 months between boosters, so we're looking at May for now. From what we've been hearing and reading sounds like it loses it's effectiveness after 6 months. By waiting until May or maybe even June, we're hoping the vaccine will be more effective and will increase our resistance when we travel in September to visit our daughter.
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Where you take one step and miss the whole first rung

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