Re: Coronavirus Thread of Doom
Posted: 03 Sep 2020, 4:32pm
I dunno about "go back to February 2020" but it's hard to say exactly what the long term repercussions really will be, especially if we're trying to assess ways society wouldn't have changed except for the virus. I tend to think that any ideas around how our day to day lives will be permanently altered are kinda overblown. Like, we're going to go back to having concerts and eating inside at restaurants once there is a vaccine and a lot of people are going back to an office. A lot of the economic and social stressors that have been exacerbated by covid were present already so maybe covid should be seen as more of an accelerant than anything.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑03 Sep 2020, 4:15pmI remember when this started, I asked people about the long-term cultural changes that this would have, at several suggested that once it's "over," things would go back to February 2020. Anyone still think that?
I don't know if restaurants will be as common as they were. Frequent dining out is a fairly recent cultural phenomenon. Prior to the 80s, going out to eat was mostly for either the well to do or for special occasions. The economic hit on the cheaper restaurants plus the wariness of public gathering could well signal the end of that cultural ritual, returning dining out to the wealthy, while more people shift to delivery and eating in. I recall reading that upwards of 75% of restaurants might not make it thru. That's a high number but even, say, 50% would alter things considerably.Flex wrote: ↑03 Sep 2020, 4:48pmI dunno about "go back to February 2020" but it's hard to say exactly what the long term repercussions really will be, especially if we're trying to assess ways society wouldn't have changed except for the virus. I tend to think that any ideas around how our day to day lives will be permanently altered are kinda overblown. Like, we're going to go back to having concerts and eating inside at restaurants once there is a vaccine and a lot of people are going back to an office. A lot of the economic and social stressors that have been exacerbated by covid were present already so maybe covid should be seen as more of an accelerant than anything.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑03 Sep 2020, 4:15pmI remember when this started, I asked people about the long-term cultural changes that this would have, at several suggested that once it's "over," things would go back to February 2020. Anyone still think that?
And, obviously, if a working vaccine isn't developed and distributed widely enough to achieve herd immunity, all bets are off.
I mean, people are already going back to their normal lives and we don't have a vaccine yet.Flex wrote: ↑03 Sep 2020, 4:48pmI dunno about "go back to February 2020" but it's hard to say exactly what the long term repercussions really will be, especially if we're trying to assess ways society wouldn't have changed except for the virus. I tend to think that any ideas around how our day to day lives will be permanently altered are kinda overblown. Like, we're going to go back to having concerts and eating inside at restaurants once there is a vaccine and a lot of people are going back to an office. A lot of the economic and social stressors that have been exacerbated by covid were present already so maybe covid should be seen as more of an accelerant than anything.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑03 Sep 2020, 4:15pmI remember when this started, I asked people about the long-term cultural changes that this would have, at several suggested that once it's "over," things would go back to February 2020. Anyone still think that?
And, obviously, if a working vaccine isn't developed and distributed widely enough to achieve herd immunity, all bets are off.
Yeah, and I think it's gonna get worse again as a result. Especially with winter coming. It won't be as bad as March, because treatment is a lot better than it was, but we're in for a rude awakening in a couple months I think. If we really can't do anything to stave off the virus with a vaccine, I agree with Doc on some of the long term consequences of increased suspicion of (say) eating indoors and our view of things like internet connectivity if this keep dragging on. Unlike some other countries, I don't have any faith in our ability to coordinate public health policy to tamp down spread without a vaccine on a national scale (our local response has been quite good, I'm pleased to say, and better than I initially gave local electeds credit for), and frankly I'm worried about our ability to get enough people to take a vaccine to make enough of a difference in terms of making indoors safer again and such. I sounded sort of blase about these things in my post yesterday, but I should clarify that a ton depends on our public health policy which so far has been abysmal and even with more competent leadership is likely going to continue to be pretty suboptimal for a bunch of structural reasons we all discuss on the reg around here.
it's utterly horrifying, and as i said on the tweeterz, if trump rolls out some faux vaccine prior to the election, it's just going to exacerbate vaccine skepticism when it turns out to be less-effective-than-advertised. there's definitely a very plausible path to a worst case scenario here that really well and truly fucks the US from a public health perspective for the forseeable future.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑04 Sep 2020, 3:46pmThere was some kind of poll I saw a few days ago that suggested a full 50% of Americans say they won't get vaccinated if/when one becomes available (I think Canada's split is 80/20ish). That's gonna rack up a lot more bodies. If you need a case study on the pernicious nature of ideology, anti-vax is just sitting there.
The weird thing is, it's his base that are the most prominent skeptics. That's a strange dynamic at work.Flex wrote: ↑04 Sep 2020, 4:53pmit's utterly horrifying, and as i said on the tweeterz, if trump rolls out some faux vaccine prior to the election, it's just going to exacerbate vaccine skepticism when it turns out to be less-effective-than-advertised. there's definitely a very plausible path to a worst case scenario here that really well and truly fucks the US from a public health perspective for the forseeable future.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑04 Sep 2020, 3:46pmThere was some kind of poll I saw a few days ago that suggested a full 50% of Americans say they won't get vaccinated if/when one becomes available (I think Canada's split is 80/20ish). That's gonna rack up a lot more bodies. If you need a case study on the pernicious nature of ideology, anti-vax is just sitting there.
This is reason enough for me to be skeptical about larger changes. As Jenny mentioned (and I can only speak locally and anecdotally), everything is pretty much back to normal already. If the resurgence won't be as bad as March was, I can't see many people worrying much about it. In Seattle, stores are PACKED, restaurants are being frequented, people are hanging out. The only real difference is the masks.
LMAO