The Future of the Democratic Party

[Dr. Medulla]

And a lot of it is counter productive. I guess they rated my chances higher than I did, but I think all the cloak and dagger stuff denied me, like, a third place finish. The candidate who won was probably going to win anyways just because she was so well connected with all the wealthiest members of the community who put pressure on committee members for her. Why not just run the contest cleanly and win anyways? Again, I'm bad at politics in some ways.

Just a kneejerk response to any challenger or being an outsider were you sufficiently contemptible?

[Flex]

Just a kneejerk response to any challenger or being an outsider were you sufficiently contemptible?

The former Im pretty sure (although I guess they knew I was affiliated with the DSA and was/am a Bernie supporter, so who knows for sure). Another candidate was (formerly) fairly tight with some of these folks. They refused to speak to him during the process and he learned those folks were spreading some fairly malicious lies about him to the vacancy committee. He was a former public official who worked with all these people, not some major outsider. Just total small town party political machine stuff, but based more on what I'd call the low key and typical "friends helping friends/Hunter Biden" corruption endemic to the political system rather than anything ideologically driven.

[Flex]

*double post*

[Dr. Medulla]

Just a kneejerk response to any challenger or being an outsider were you sufficiently contemptible?

The former Im pretty sure (although I guess they knew I was affiliated with the DSA and was/am a Bernie supporter, so who knows for sure). Another candidate was (formerly) fairly tight with some of these folks. They refused to speak to him during the process and he learned those folks were spreading some fairly malicious lies about him to the vacancy committee. He was a former public official who worked with all these people, not some major outsider. Just total small town party political machine stuff, but based more on what I'd call the low key and typical "friends helping friends/Hunter Biden" corruption endemic to the political system rather than anything ideologically driven.

In its own way, it's a reminder of Kissinger's observation that academic politics are so vicious because the stakes are so low. Nothing I've experienced first-hand, mind you, but the Boss has shared with me many, many stories of pettiness, ignorance, entitlement, and outright incompetence. And racism and misogyny, oh the racism and misogyny …

[Dr. Medulla]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... convention

This strikes me as a clear DNC/media attack on Sanders. Yes, Bloomberg is buying lots of ads, but how does that equate to winning primaries? Is there any evidence that non-elite Democrats want a rich Republican of their own? Talk of a brokered convention after Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and is leading in NH (and California) would, if it were Biden, not exist. It'd be confirmation that Biden is going to sweep on thru. For all the yammering about Sanders splitting the party (read: appealing more to the base than the insiders), elevating Bloomberg should cause the left side to walk the fuck out of the convention hall.

[WestwayKid]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... convention

This strikes me as a clear DNC/media attack on Sanders. Yes, Bloomberg is buying lots of ads, but how does that equate to winning primaries? Is there any evidence that non-elite Democrats want a rich Republican of their own? Talk of a brokered convention after Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and is leading in NH (and California) would, if it were Biden, not exist. It'd be confirmation that Biden is going to sweep on thru. For all the yammering about Sanders splitting the party (read: appealing more to the base than the insiders), elevating Bloomberg should cause the left side to walk the fuck out of the convention hall.

Quite a few Democrats I know, many of them staunch progressives, are having a crisis of conscious right now. There is a real fear that someone like Bernie Sanders cannot win a general election against Trump because while he excites those already on the left, it's the great big group in the middle that isn't going to buy what he's selling. I have 2 close family members - both were staunch Sanders supporters in 2016 - knocked on doors, worked rallies, made phone calls - who are now looking closely at candidates like Bloomberg. They have both told me they don't want Sanders to get the nomination. This is a strange election. The presence of Donald Trump is indescribably huge and frightening and the idea that he needs to be defeated in November is strong. Strong enough that I feel like many Democratic voters are willing to side with a candidate who shares less of their values, but who has a perceived better chance of defeating Trump.

[Dr. Medulla]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... convention

This strikes me as a clear DNC/media attack on Sanders. Yes, Bloomberg is buying lots of ads, but how does that equate to winning primaries? Is there any evidence that non-elite Democrats want a rich Republican of their own? Talk of a brokered convention after Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and is leading in NH (and California) would, if it were Biden, not exist. It'd be confirmation that Biden is going to sweep on thru. For all the yammering about Sanders splitting the party (read: appealing more to the base than the insiders), elevating Bloomberg should cause the left side to walk the fuck out of the convention hall.

Quite a few Democrats I know, many of them staunch progressives, are having a crisis of conscious right now. There is a real fear that someone like Bernie Sanders cannot win a general election against Trump because while he excites those already on the left, it's the great big group in the middle that isn't going to buy what he's selling. I have 2 close family members - both were staunch Sanders supporters in 2016 - knocked on doors, worked rallies, made phone calls - who are now looking closely at candidates like Bloomberg. They have both told me they don't want Sanders to get the nomination. This is a strange election. The presence of Donald Trump is indescribably huge and frightening and the idea that he needs to be defeated in November is strong. Strong enough that I feel like many Democratic voters are willing to side with a candidate who shares less of their values, but who has a perceived better chance of defeating Trump.

Yeah, the left's biggest stumbling block has always been that people believe it can't win, so even moderate leftists flock to the centre hoping to stop the right. Happens in Canada all the time.

[Dr. Medulla]

Two stories on the same poll, each with very different slants:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ist-gallup
https://www.newsweek.com/76-percent-dem ... ws-1486732

[eumaas]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... convention

This strikes me as a clear DNC/media attack on Sanders. Yes, Bloomberg is buying lots of ads, but how does that equate to winning primaries? Is there any evidence that non-elite Democrats want a rich Republican of their own? Talk of a brokered convention after Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and is leading in NH (and California) would, if it were Biden, not exist. It'd be confirmation that Biden is going to sweep on thru. For all the yammering about Sanders splitting the party (read: appealing more to the base than the insiders), elevating Bloomberg should cause the left side to walk the fuck out of the convention hall.

Quite a few Democrats I know, many of them staunch progressives, are having a crisis of conscious right now. There is a real fear that someone like Bernie Sanders cannot win a general election against Trump because while he excites those already on the left, it's the great big group in the middle that isn't going to buy what he's selling. I have 2 close family members - both were staunch Sanders supporters in 2016 - knocked on doors, worked rallies, made phone calls - who are now looking closely at candidates like Bloomberg. They have both told me they don't want Sanders to get the nomination. This is a strange election. The presence of Donald Trump is indescribably huge and frightening and the idea that he needs to be defeated in November is strong. Strong enough that I feel like many Democratic voters are willing to side with a candidate who shares less of their values, but who has a perceived better chance of defeating Trump.

weird given I know several Republicans who told me they would vote for Bernie.

[Wolter]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... convention

This strikes me as a clear DNC/media attack on Sanders. Yes, Bloomberg is buying lots of ads, but how does that equate to winning primaries? Is there any evidence that non-elite Democrats want a rich Republican of their own? Talk of a brokered convention after Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and is leading in NH (and California) would, if it were Biden, not exist. It'd be confirmation that Biden is going to sweep on thru. For all the yammering about Sanders splitting the party (read: appealing more to the base than the insiders), elevating Bloomberg should cause the left side to walk the fuck out of the convention hall.

Quite a few Democrats I know, many of them staunch progressives, are having a crisis of conscious right now. There is a real fear that someone like Bernie Sanders cannot win a general election against Trump because while he excites those already on the left, it's the great big group in the middle that isn't going to buy what he's selling. I have 2 close family members - both were staunch Sanders supporters in 2016 - knocked on doors, worked rallies, made phone calls - who are now looking closely at candidates like Bloomberg. They have both told me they don't want Sanders to get the nomination. This is a strange election. The presence of Donald Trump is indescribably huge and frightening and the idea that he needs to be defeated in November is strong. Strong enough that I feel like many Democratic voters are willing to side with a candidate who shares less of their values, but who has a perceived better chance of defeating Trump.

weird given I know several Republicans who told me they would vote for Bernie.

People absolutely need to stop pretending they know who or what is electable.

[BostonBeaneater]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... convention

This strikes me as a clear DNC/media attack on Sanders. Yes, Bloomberg is buying lots of ads, but how does that equate to winning primaries? Is there any evidence that non-elite Democrats want a rich Republican of their own? Talk of a brokered convention after Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and is leading in NH (and California) would, if it were Biden, not exist. It'd be confirmation that Biden is going to sweep on thru. For all the yammering about Sanders splitting the party (read: appealing more to the base than the insiders), elevating Bloomberg should cause the left side to walk the fuck out of the convention hall.

Quite a few Democrats I know, many of them staunch progressives, are having a crisis of conscious right now. There is a real fear that someone like Bernie Sanders cannot win a general election against Trump because while he excites those already on the left, it's the great big group in the middle that isn't going to buy what he's selling. I have 2 close family members - both were staunch Sanders supporters in 2016 - knocked on doors, worked rallies, made phone calls - who are now looking closely at candidates like Bloomberg. They have both told me they don't want Sanders to get the nomination. This is a strange election. The presence of Donald Trump is indescribably huge and frightening and the idea that he needs to be defeated in November is strong. Strong enough that I feel like many Democratic voters are willing to side with a candidate who shares less of their values, but who has a perceived better chance of defeating Trump.

weird given I know several Republicans who told me they would vote for Bernie.

People absolutely need to stop pretending they know who or what is electable.

You’d think someone like Warren would have a good showing. She’s smart, likable, and seems to have a plan for everything. The grim fact is that the America we were sold growing up is dead. The country is just too stupid to survive.

[Dr. Medulla]

People absolutely need to stop pretending they know who or what is electable.

The collective hearts of America's Sunday show pundits and op-ed columnists just fluttered in fear that such a view might spread.

[Dr. Medulla]

How much longer does Warren stay in? Third and fourth place finishes when her closest policy ally won both doesn't really point much of a way forward. And she quits before the "moderates" don't sort themselves out, and assuming most of her voters go to Sanders, that'd be damned tough for a stop Sanders effort. Again, not unlike 2016 when the non-Trump Republicans continued to stay in, fighting amongst themselves and then it was too late to stop him. But, of course, they all think they're the one who can best stop the outsider so nobody is prepared to quit.

[matedog]

How much longer does Warren stay in? Third and fourth place finishes when her closest policy ally won both doesn't really point much of a way forward. And she quits before the "moderates" don't sort themselves out, and assuming most of her voters go to Sanders, that'd be damned tough for a stop Sanders effort. Again, not unlike 2016 when the non-Trump Republicans continued to stay in, fighting amongst themselves and then it was too late to stop him. But, of course, they all think they're the one who can best stop the outsider so nobody is prepared to quit.

She was my #1, so this is a bummer. That being said, if Biden and Buttigieg stay in and eventually cancel each other out securing a Sanders nomination, I'm okay with that.

Interesting how momentum has swung. I think Warren would have fared much better if we were back in October.

[Flex]

How much longer does Warren stay in? Third and fourth place finishes when her closest policy ally won both doesn't really point much of a way forward. And she quits before the "moderates" don't sort themselves out, and assuming most of her voters go to Sanders, that'd be damned tough for a stop Sanders effort. Again, not unlike 2016 when the non-Trump Republicans continued to stay in, fighting amongst themselves and then it was too late to stop him. But, of course, they all think they're the one who can best stop the outsider so nobody is prepared to quit.

She released a memo articulating that she'd stay in to the end in order to have power as a broker at a contested convention. But if she doesn't do well voters are going to flee to other candidates (I'm already seeing it happen anecdotally). I think she sees what happens on NV and SC and if she's not doing much, much better (which signs point to that she won't) she drops out. Financial support will be dries up by then and she won't want to get humiliated on Super Tuesday, I think.

The question I have (I asked on Twitter but didn't receive any responses) is whether Warren dropping out helps or hurts Sanders. They're in the same "lane" broadly speaking, but there's been a theory of support going for a while that Warren attracts mostly PMC people who will defect to Biden and Pete over Bernie because that's their class interest. I think polling and Iowa caucus results have been kinda mixed on where that support goes, so I dunno if anyone had any solid evidence and thinking on who actually benefits most from Warren ending her.campaign.