The Future of the Democratic Party

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Dr. Medulla
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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BostonBeaneater wrote:
19 Mar 2020, 6:07pm
Top to bottom in public and private institutions I see a staggering lack of leadership. People love being in charge but are stunningly pitiful at making tough decisions.
It's another of those examples of revealing a person's character. Some see being in charge as an opportunity to claim privileges and slough work onto those down the line; others see leadership as taking on more responsibility, which is to say more work for themselves. Every shitty boss I've had fell in the former category; every great boss in the latter.
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WestwayKid
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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DNC postponed until week of August 17th. That should make a busy couple of weeks for me: family vacation to LA from 8/13 until 8/17, come home for the DNC, and then head down to Indianapolis the following weekend for the 500.
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Silent Majority
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Biden is going to fucking lose badly
Authority is supposedly grounded in wisdom, but I could see from a very early age that authority was only a system of control and it didn't have any inherent wisdom. I quickly realised that you either became a power or you were crushed


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BostonBeaneater
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Silent Majority wrote:
02 Apr 2020, 12:10pm
Biden is going to fucking lose badly
No shit. He can barely talk.
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Inder
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Bernie's out.

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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Inder wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 11:34am
Bernie's out.
My congratulations to the Democrats.
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Silent Majority
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Silent Majority »

eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 11:50am
Inder wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 11:34am
Bernie's out.
My congratulations to the Democrats.
My congratulations to the Republicans.
Authority is supposedly grounded in wisdom, but I could see from a very early age that authority was only a system of control and it didn't have any inherent wisdom. I quickly realised that you either became a power or you were crushed


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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Silent Majority wrote:
02 Apr 2020, 12:10pm
Biden is going to fucking lose badly
Now more than ever.

Seriously though barring US Covid related deaths on a massive scale Trump has this sewn up.

Silent Majority
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Silent Majority »

revbob wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:11pm
Silent Majority wrote:
02 Apr 2020, 12:10pm
Biden is going to fucking lose badly
Now more than ever.

Seriously though barring US Covid related deaths on a massive scale Trump has this sewn up.
I think a million US deaths is what it would take to make a dent on him.
Authority is supposedly grounded in wisdom, but I could see from a very early age that authority was only a system of control and it didn't have any inherent wisdom. I quickly realised that you either became a power or you were crushed


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WestwayKid
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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I grew up being involved in politics. My parents had me handing out flyers for Mondale when I was 8. I refuse to accept that Trump is a shoe in this November. Joe Biden is not my first choice. He's not my second or my third, but he's what we have to work with and I'm going to be putting in the hours to help get him a victory in 2020. It might be in vain. I know there is a lot of things I want, but won't get with a moderate candidate like Biden, but I also know I'll get even less with 4 more years of Trump. Biden very well might lose (and some already think he has)...but the Wednesday after the election at least I'll know I did what I could to push back against the evil fucking monster that is Donald Trump and the GOP.
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Dr. Medulla
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Once again, I want someone to explain—nuts and bolts, not just doomsaying—where Trump is going to get his votes. He finished 3M behind last time and won by the tightest margin in three states. What has changed so dramatically in his favour that makes him winning such a slam dunk now? Will he acquire significant former Democratic voters? Will Democrats who voted in 2016 and 2018 not come out? I want cold analysis here that shows why November is now a foregone conclusion.
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Kory
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Kory »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:24pm
Once again, I want someone to explain—nuts and bolts, not just doomsaying—where Trump is going to get his votes. He finished 3M behind last time and won by the tightest margin in three states. What has changed so dramatically in his favour that makes him winning such a slam dunk now? Will he acquire significant former Democratic voters? Will Democrats who voted in 2016 and 2018 not come out? I want cold analysis here that shows why November is now a foregone conclusion.
I'm interested in this as well, even though I'm a doomsayer.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Flex »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:24pm
Once again, I want someone to explain—nuts and bolts, not just doomsaying—where Trump is going to get his votes. He finished 3M behind last time and won by the tightest margin in three states. What has changed so dramatically in his favour that makes him winning such a slam dunk now? Will he acquire significant former Democratic voters? Will Democrats who voted in 2016 and 2018 not come out? I want cold analysis here that shows why November is now a foregone conclusion.
I think the mechanism that may sink Biden would be voter enthusiasm. If the media narrative coalesces around Trump doing an okay job in the crisis response and Biden doesn't seem like a vigorous, inspiring alternative - the maga piglets are all juiced to vote and enough irregular voters who'd support Biden decide they have better things to do on a Tuesday. As I said elsewhere, I've gotten enough wrong this election cycle (including thinking Sanders was gonna win, lol) that I'm not about to make proclamations about how the November election is gonna end up, and I agree with you that the math looks very hard for Trump, but I think that's roughly what a path to victory for Trump looks like.
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Dr. Medulla
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Flex wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:28pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:24pm
Once again, I want someone to explain—nuts and bolts, not just doomsaying—where Trump is going to get his votes. He finished 3M behind last time and won by the tightest margin in three states. What has changed so dramatically in his favour that makes him winning such a slam dunk now? Will he acquire significant former Democratic voters? Will Democrats who voted in 2016 and 2018 not come out? I want cold analysis here that shows why November is now a foregone conclusion.
I think the mechanism that may sink Biden would be voter enthusiasm. If the media narrative coalesces around Trump doing an okay job in the crisis response and Biden doesn't seem like a vigorous, inspiring alternative - the maga piglets are all juiced to vote and enough irregular voters who'd support Biden decide they have better things to do on a Tuesday. As I said elsewhere, I've gotten enough wrong this election cycle (including thinking Sanders was gonna win, lol) that I'm not about to make proclamations about how the November election is gonna end up, and I agree with you that the math looks very hard for Trump, but I think that's roughly what a path to victory for Trump looks like.
Okay, I could see that, tho thus far I'm not seeing that kind of media narrative develop around Trump. I mean, I get lack of enthusiasm for Biden, but will that be stronger than anger toward Trump amidst 100K+ dead and a gutted economy, along with everything else about the man? There seems an assumption that nothing Trump does or doesn't do will have any effect on the electorate—that Biden has to convince people he'll be better than Trump. This seems far more a situation where the challenger just has to seem capable (like Clinton in 1992) for people's misgivings over the current guy to find a home. And the social restrictions of the pandemic could well benefit Biden by not exposing his senility. Ultimately, it's two dud candidates, but I'm struggling to see why anti-Trump voters will be more demanding than Trump supporters.
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Flex
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Flex »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:39pm
Okay, I could see that, tho thus far I'm not seeing that kind of media narrative develop around Trump. I mean, I get lack of enthusiasm for Biden, but will that be stronger than anger toward Trump amidst 100K+ dead and a gutted economy, along with everything else about the man? There seems an assumption that nothing Trump does or doesn't do will have any effect on the electorate—that Biden has to convince people he'll be better than Trump. This seems far more a situation where the challenger just has to seem capable (like Clinton in 1992) for people's misgivings over the current guy to find a home. And the social restrictions of the pandemic could well benefit Biden by not exposing his senility. Ultimately, it's two dud candidates, but I'm struggling to see why anti-Trump voters will be more demanding than Trump supporters.
I'll have to let someone with more confidence in predicting the outcome of the election field the rest of this. My gut says Biden is a punching bag waiting to be walked all over, but my experience with this primary season has been that my instincts of what will and won't resonate with the electorate are pretty skewed to my own personal preferences and what I think might be my own left-ish case of Trump Derangement Syndrome where I think his powers of bullying are a lot more compelling to people than they actually may be. But, I dunno. I'd love to hear from someone who's run through more of the numbers - I've really tried to not follow the polling and horse race shit too closely for a while since it was giving me a bad attitude.

Like, here's an example: Biden has now been (I think credibly) accused of sexual assault. Seems like the sort of thing that Trump will exploit. And even though MAGA deplorables don't give a shit about assaulting women, presumably at least some suburban mom swing voters do. So does Trump have the ability to generate some controversy on whether Biden ssaults women? And if he does, does he benefit from voters starting to believe "lol nothing matters anymore"? Again, my gut says yes on at least the last point - fascism benefits from a belief that they're all bastards so you should just go with the bastard who's there for "you". But, eh, I don't really have any numbers to back any of this up, it's just instinct.
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