The Future of the Democratic Party

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matedog
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by matedog »

Fingers crossed for an inspiring VP candidate - Warren or Abrams really. I'd put good money he's picking Amy to *theoretically* get that midwest vote though.
Look, you have to establish context for these things. And I maintain that unless you appreciate the Fall of Constantinople, the Great Fire of London, and Mickey Mantle's fatalist alcoholism, live Freddy makes no sense. If you want to half-ass it, fine, go call Simon Schama to do the appendix.

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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Inder »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:39pm
why anti-Trump voters will be more demanding than Trump supporters.
They're in luck then, as "I insist I am actually alive" appears to be Biden's entire policy platform.

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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:24pm
Once again, I want someone to explain—nuts and bolts, not just doomsaying—where Trump is going to get his votes. He finished 3M behind last time and won by the tightest margin in three states. What has changed so dramatically in his favour that makes him winning such a slam dunk now? Will he acquire significant former Democratic voters? Will Democrats who voted in 2016 and 2018 not come out? I want cold analysis here that shows why November is now a foregone conclusion.
Russia. Duh!

Sorry.

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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by eumaas »

I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Dr. Medulla »

eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:29pm
I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
At which point I throw up my hands and question whether they truly think Trump is the lesser of two obvious evils. This is not about full-throated support of Biden. As I've said, work to elect him and then work against him whenever he heeds Wall Street. Saying that another four years of Trump is somehow better suggests dubious political acumen.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by eumaas »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:38pm
eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:29pm
I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
At which point I throw up my hands and question whether they truly think Trump is the lesser of two obvious evils. This is not about full-throated support of Biden. As I've said, work to elect him and then work against him whenever he heeds Wall Street. Saying that another four years of Trump is somehow better suggests dubious political acumen.
I don't think four more years of Trump is better, but I don't think that voting for the Dem no matter what has done anything to move the party left. If you demonstrate that you will always vote for the Dem no matter what, I'm not sure why the Dems would have any reason to cater to your needs.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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as an addendum: I believe this has demonstrated that attempting to capture the Democratic Party is probably not going to work. I will happily leave the Democratic Party to the people that support and believe in it.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Dr. Medulla »

Flex wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 1:56pm
I'll have to let someone with more confidence in predicting the outcome of the election field the rest of this. My gut says Biden is a punching bag waiting to be walked all over, but my experience with this primary season has been that my instincts of what will and won't resonate with the electorate are pretty skewed to my own personal preferences and what I think might be my own left-ish case of Trump Derangement Syndrome where I think his powers of bullying are a lot more compelling to people than they actually may be. But, I dunno. I'd love to hear from someone who's run through more of the numbers - I've really tried to not follow the polling and horse race shit too closely for a while since it was giving me a bad attitude.
I'm the same way with Biden re. him being a punching bag, but Trump is also senile and gets away with it. And maybe the greater electorate regards Biden as folksy somehow? I don't get it, but seemingly there's some kind of charm there.
Like, here's an example: Biden has now been (I think credibly) accused of sexual assault. Seems like the sort of thing that Trump will exploit. And even though MAGA deplorables don't give a shit about assaulting women, presumably at least some suburban mom swing voters do. So does Trump have the ability to generate some controversy on whether Biden ssaults women? And if he does, does he benefit from voters starting to believe "lol nothing matters anymore"? Again, my gut says yes on at least the last point - fascism benefits from a belief that they're all bastards so you should just go with the bastard who's there for "you". But, eh, I don't really have any numbers to back any of this up, it's just instinct.
In a normal election and against a different candidate, those allegations should be disqualifying, and it's irritating that they emerged so late. But I really do think anti-Trump voters are going to hold their nose on a lot. This election, if the Democrats win, won't be a vote for them so much as against Trump. And I see no evidence that Trump won't keep providing red meat to the anti-Trump side. The issue isn't about shaking his base—that's mostly irrelevant—but which way does he push everyone else. How much does he motivate those outside his base to turn him out?
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Dr. Medulla »

eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:41pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:38pm
eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:29pm
I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
At which point I throw up my hands and question whether they truly think Trump is the lesser of two obvious evils. This is not about full-throated support of Biden. As I've said, work to elect him and then work against him whenever he heeds Wall Street. Saying that another four years of Trump is somehow better suggests dubious political acumen.
I don't think four more years of Trump is better, but I don't think that voting for the Dem no matter what has done anything to move the party left. If you demonstrate that you will always vote for the Dem no matter what, I'm not sure why the Dems would have any reason to cater to your needs.
A couple things. Winning the presidency isn't the only game for moving the party to the left. How well do they do growing that caucus in the House? Of course Bernie would be better than Biden to us here, but the presidential nominee isn't the sum total. Second, I keep pointing to history, particularly 1932. FDR didn't run as a welfare state proponent. Hell, he came out as more of a balanced budget candidate than Hoover did. But it's a fallacy to think social events can't move politics. Do we know for certain that Biden wouldn't be receptive to the left flank of the party given events? I'm not saying he would be, only that we can't know for certain. He's a much better gamble, tho, than a second term of Trump. None of this should be taken as pollyannaish. Rather, it's about acknowledging what we don't know—"I could be wrong" has been my intellectual motto since I had the bug awakened in my thirty years—and appreciating that a small chance is better than no chance.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by Flex »

eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:41pm
as an addendum: I believe this has demonstrated that attempting to capture the Democratic Party is probably not going to work. I will happily leave the Democratic Party to the people that support and believe in it.
I still think, in terms of electoral work, spending more time on special district boards, local councils, and school district boards (etc.) would be a better use of people's time than going all-in on major congressional elections. More boring, but both probably more immediately impactful to your local community and also a lot easier to win those elections. Some places do a lot of that, some not so much, but I'd like to see energy push in that direction for people who want to still be involved in election-type work.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by eumaas »

Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:54pm
eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:41pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:38pm
eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:29pm
I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
At which point I throw up my hands and question whether they truly think Trump is the lesser of two obvious evils. This is not about full-throated support of Biden. As I've said, work to elect him and then work against him whenever he heeds Wall Street. Saying that another four years of Trump is somehow better suggests dubious political acumen.
I don't think four more years of Trump is better, but I don't think that voting for the Dem no matter what has done anything to move the party left. If you demonstrate that you will always vote for the Dem no matter what, I'm not sure why the Dems would have any reason to cater to your needs.
A couple things. Winning the presidency isn't the only game for moving the party to the left. How well do they do growing that caucus in the House? Of course Bernie would be better than Biden to us here, but the presidential nominee isn't the sum total. Second, I keep pointing to history, particularly 1932. FDR didn't run as a welfare state proponent. Hell, he came out as more of a balanced budget candidate than Hoover did. But it's a fallacy to think social events can't move politics. Do we know for certain that Biden wouldn't be receptive to the left flank of the party given events? I'm not saying he would be, only that we can't know for certain. He's a much better gamble, tho, than a second term of Trump. None of this should be taken as pollyannaish. Rather, it's about acknowledging what we don't know—"I could be wrong" has been my intellectual motto since I had the bug awakened in my thirty years—and appreciating that a small chance is better than no chance.
I actually do think the presidency is very important for moving the party to the left because it sets the agenda for who the party backs in the other races, and that has a lot to do with where the money is going to go. Since getting involved in electoral politics I've seen how the money machine backs establishment candidates and drowns out left alternatives in the primaries. I mean Cal Cunningham just won the primary here and I don't think it's a coincidence he's flooded with money. I wouldn't be surprised if the small crop of lefties in the Dems end up getting ousted.

I see no reason to think Biden can be pulled left especially given he's reiterated his opposition to M4A even in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. If there was ever a social event that could push a candidate left on healthcare, it's the pandemic, and yet he won't budge. I also have my doubts that he would even pick Warren for running mate as a concession to the progressives. As far as the Supreme Court, he does not have a good record there either and has made noises about reaching across the aisle since the start of his campaign. I think the people who aren't going to vote (at least for president) in November don't see enough chance of long-term gains with Biden. None of them are confident that he would actually appoint a liberal justice for example. His messaging on policy probably doesn't help anybody having qualms. He also told young people that he had absolutely no empathy for them and their plight and has told people that disagree with him from the left not to vote for him or even to vote for Trump. It doesn't seem like he is interested in young people's vote.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this. Always worth having humility about one's judgment.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
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I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

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eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:29pm
I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
Biden is an uninspired choice but for Bernie supporters to boycott or protest vote in this election really seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face. I unfortunately think this will happen and will help shore up another 4 (or more) years of Trump. I understand being principled to a degree but a boycott will likely eliminate any chance in hell that Socialist ever get anything they want.
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by eumaas »

Flex wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:58pm
eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:41pm
as an addendum: I believe this has demonstrated that attempting to capture the Democratic Party is probably not going to work. I will happily leave the Democratic Party to the people that support and believe in it.
I still think, in terms of electoral work, spending more time on special district boards, local councils, and school district boards (etc.) would be a better use of people's time than going all-in on major congressional elections. More boring, but both probably more immediately impactful to your local community and also a lot easier to win those elections. Some places do a lot of that, some not so much, but I'd like to see energy push in that direction for people who want to still be involved in election-type work.
Local stuff may be easier in some places but here in Orange County the real estate developers and landlords who run the local Dems have a hard lock on the offices and real progressives/socialists have found it impossible to make much headway, especially on affordable housing, which is the chief problem in Chapel Hill and Carrboro. Never underestimate the enemy's power!
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

eumaas
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by eumaas »

BostonBeaneater wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 3:09pm
eumaas wrote:
08 Apr 2020, 2:29pm
I have no idea how to quantify it, and 2016 seemed to escape quantification. I do know that most of the Bernie supporters I know aren't voting for Biden in November, but I have no idea how statistically significant that is.
Biden is an uninspired choice but for Bernie supporters to boycott or protest vote in this election really seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face. I unfortunately think this will happen and will help shore up another 4 (or more) years of Trump. I understand being principled to a degree but a boycott will likely eliminate any chance in hell that Socialist ever get anything they want.
I don't think it's about principled abstention, actually. It's more about demonstrating that not appealing to the left means that you do not gain their votes. That would at least give the Dems some incentive to move left.
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

eumaas
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Re: The Future of the Democratic Party

Post by eumaas »

I mean I think the Biden people are banking on the Always Blue No Matter Who plus Never Trump Republican vote being enough to make up for losses among the left, the youth, and the independents. They may be right!
I feel that there is a fascistic element, for example, in the Rolling Stones . . .
— Morton Feldman

I've studied the phenomenon of neo-provincialism in self-isolating online communities but this place takes the fucking cake.
— Clashy

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