The Trump observations thread

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BostonBeaneater
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by BostonBeaneater » 10 Mar 2019, 8:40pm

revbob wrote:
10 Mar 2019, 8:04pm
So what do people think are the chances that Trump accepts a loss in 2020 without trying to invoke some emergeny powers? And if it is the case that hes not willing to give up power what is the likelihood that a majority of the Republicans in Congress don't continue to back him?

My wife who grew up under dictatorship) has been saying all along that Trump won't surrender power if he loses. I initially sort of laughed it off but I'm not sure she's wrong anymore and I'm reasonably sure most of the Republicans in Congress will stand by him.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by revbob » 10 Mar 2019, 8:49pm

BostonBeaneater wrote:
10 Mar 2019, 8:40pm
revbob wrote:
10 Mar 2019, 8:04pm
So what do people think are the chances that Trump accepts a loss in 2020 without trying to invoke some emergeny powers? And if it is the case that hes not willing to give up power what is the likelihood that a majority of the Republicans in Congress don't continue to back him?

My wife who grew up under dictatorship) has been saying all along that Trump won't surrender power if he loses. I initially sort of laughed it off but I'm not sure she's wrong anymore and I'm reasonably sure most of the Republicans in Congress will stand by him.
Will Don Jr. be our Baby Doc?
That would be truly frightening. One thing about Sr is that he can't have a very long shelf life.

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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Dr. Medulla » 11 Mar 2019, 8:23am

Flex wrote:
10 Mar 2019, 8:10pm
I think he's probably going to be reelected, but if he does lose I suspect he steps down after a bunch of lunatic bluster. Actually seizing power as a dictator smacks of effort, and Trump is fundamentally lazy and senile. Maybe if other people around him want it to happen, I guess it could go down.
What's your rationale for thinking he'll be re-elected? I have a really hard time seeing where he has a viable path short of massive fraud. Starting from the baseline of the 2016 results, how likely is it that he can reproduce the same results? He'll have his own shitty record to run on and he won't have Clinton, plus a chunk of his voters from last time will be dead whereas a new batch of voters less likely to support him will be on the rolls, not to mention all the Obama voters who just didn't vote at all because they disliked both candidates. I'm not saying it's obvious that he'll lose, but the guy won by an electoral fluke and having a widely dislike opponent. I scratch my head at the confidence that people have that he'll be re-elected given that his baseline is really weak.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Flex » 11 Mar 2019, 8:53am

Incumbents almost always win and presidents presiding over relatively arable economies almost always win. Job growth is usually pretty predictive of reelection success. Reelection polling two years out has rarely been predictive of actual results.

There's obviously a compelling path to his losing, but if we treat the 2016 election as a weird outlier and base his reelection chances on the stuff that's usually most predictive of reelection success, he'll probably win.

His polling numbers aren't great but he wouldn't be the first president with polling in the 40s to win a second term and I think we'll see a lot of lean R's break back to him even though they express dissatisfaction now if it means keeping the Loony Left (or whatever) out. Same with our supposedly enlightened corporate overlords (Tim Cook being a great example) who tsk tsk over the president's vulgarities but will vote for the guy who hands out tax breaks for the rich and not give a shit about anything else.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by revbob » 11 Mar 2019, 8:59am

Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 8:23am
Flex wrote:
10 Mar 2019, 8:10pm
I think he's probably going to be reelected, but if he does lose I suspect he steps down after a bunch of lunatic bluster. Actually seizing power as a dictator smacks of effort, and Trump is fundamentally lazy and senile. Maybe if other people around him want it to happen, I guess it could go down.
What's your rationale for thinking he'll be re-elected? I have a really hard time seeing where he has a viable path short of massive fraud. Starting from the baseline of the 2016 results, how likely is it that he can reproduce the same results? He'll have his own shitty record to run on and he won't have Clinton, plus a chunk of his voters from last time will be dead whereas a new batch of voters less likely to support him will be on the rolls, not to mention all the Obama voters who just didn't vote at all because they disliked both candidates. I'm not saying it's obvious that he'll lose, but the guy won by an electoral fluke and having a widely dislike opponent. I scratch my head at the confidence that people have that he'll be re-elected given that his baseline is really weak.
I dont think its confidence that he will be re-elected (although the number of 1 and done presidents is pretty low, especially in my lifetime) as much as it is fear that he could be re-elected or like I mentioned refuse to step down claiming as you mention above(but not in the same context) voter fraud he and his supporters have been laying that groundwork especially after the 2018 elections.

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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Dr. Medulla » 11 Mar 2019, 9:12am

Yet polling doesn't suggest he's getting any credit for a passable economy. If anything, people are pissed off that the tax cut boned everyone but the wealthy. And more than a few economists foresee a crash coming soon (then again, aren't there always economists who think that?). I'm not convinced at all that economic issues will help him. Hell, he can't even be expected to just sit back and take credit—his need to stir shit up with stuff about immigrants works to distract from any economic positives.

But your explanation still doesn't address where he's going to build on his voting numbers from 2016. Are there people who regretted voting Democrat or not at all who can't wait to support him in 2020? Are there all kinds of Gen Z voters who are going to cast their first vote for him? And is that a bigger group than the reverse—those who regret supporting him or regret not voting Democrat last time around? Some polls suggest that upwards of 60% say they wouldn't vote for him under any circumstance. Assuming that's true, that doesn't give him a lot of undecided voters to work with. The most viable path that I see is depressing the opposition turnout by utterly wrecking the character of the Democrat's person or restricting the vote or outright theft. But in terms of straight numbers, that 3M vote deficit from 2016 is massive hole to climb out from.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Dr. Medulla » 11 Mar 2019, 9:18am

revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 8:59am
I dont think its confidence that he will be re-elected (although the number of 1 and done presidents is pretty low, especially in my lifetime) as much as it is fear that he could be re-elected or like I mentioned refuse to step down claiming as you mention above(but not in the same context) voter fraud he and his supporters have been laying that groundwork especially after the 2018 elections.
Sure, I get the anxiety and cynicism. But stepping back and looking at building the required numbers to win enough states, I just don't see where Trump is in an enviable position at all. That he won as a fluke in 2016 and hasn't done well to grow his appeal in office just doesn't bode well.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by revbob » 11 Mar 2019, 9:25am

Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:18am
revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 8:59am
I dont think its confidence that he will be re-elected (although the number of 1 and done presidents is pretty low, especially in my lifetime) as much as it is fear that he could be re-elected or like I mentioned refuse to step down claiming as you mention above(but not in the same context) voter fraud he and his supporters have been laying that groundwork especially after the 2018 elections.
Sure, I get the anxiety and cynicism. But stepping back and looking at building the required numbers to win enough states, I just don't see where Trump is in an enviable position at all. That he won as a fluke in 2016 and hasn't done well to grow his appeal in office just doesn't bode well.
I'm not normally that cynical (no laughing), maybe it's from hearing my wife's dire predictions too often but I am starting to think it is a very real possibility. Hey any houses for sale in your neighborhood?

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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Dr. Medulla » 11 Mar 2019, 9:34am

revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:25am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:18am
revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 8:59am
I dont think its confidence that he will be re-elected (although the number of 1 and done presidents is pretty low, especially in my lifetime) as much as it is fear that he could be re-elected or like I mentioned refuse to step down claiming as you mention above(but not in the same context) voter fraud he and his supporters have been laying that groundwork especially after the 2018 elections.
Sure, I get the anxiety and cynicism. But stepping back and looking at building the required numbers to win enough states, I just don't see where Trump is in an enviable position at all. That he won as a fluke in 2016 and hasn't done well to grow his appeal in office just doesn't bode well.
I'm not normally that cynical (no laughing), maybe it's from hearing my wife's dire predictions too often but I am starting to think it is a very real possibility. Hey any houses for sale in your neighborhood?
Lotsa turnover in our neighbourhood—c'mon up! But I'm more inclined to Flex's position that Trump is too lazy and senile to launch a coup. His modus operandi his entire life has been to bully and scam and then cut a deal when it turns south. Maybe the prospect of jail and business ruin would alter that, but it's been his style to find a way to weasel out when the heat gets close. Still, I wake up most mornings with the hope that he stroked out in the middle of the night.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by BostonBeaneater » 11 Mar 2019, 9:48am

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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Flex » 11 Mar 2019, 9:56am

Here's the basic map: https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential ... 53101.html

There are definitely several different avenues to the Dems winning in 2020, but it's worth remembering that Trump can lose some ground and still win the electoral college. Not a ton, but it's there.

Demographic trends are interesting, you're right that the landscape is very broadly getting less favorable for Trump, but it's a matter of where: gen z growth in, say, California or New York obviously does nothing for the Dem candidate while the Midwestern states continue to trend older, more conservative and whiter (that said, Trump's polling has been pretty bad in some of those states). Dems path to victory seems to me to claw back some Midwestern electoral votes and then pick up one or two of the more competitive southern states.

I still think Trump probably wins, but I'm using the word "probably" deliberately - it's definitely not a forgone conclusion. And obviously a lot could look different in two years, and it IS hard to see anything but downside for Trump. He's not going to magically become a better candidate or president between now and the election.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by revbob » 11 Mar 2019, 10:05am

Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:34am
revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:25am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:18am
revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 8:59am
I dont think its confidence that he will be re-elected (although the number of 1 and done presidents is pretty low, especially in my lifetime) as much as it is fear that he could be re-elected or like I mentioned refuse to step down claiming as you mention above(but not in the same context) voter fraud he and his supporters have been laying that groundwork especially after the 2018 elections.
Sure, I get the anxiety and cynicism. But stepping back and looking at building the required numbers to win enough states, I just don't see where Trump is in an enviable position at all. That he won as a fluke in 2016 and hasn't done well to grow his appeal in office just doesn't bode well.
I'm not normally that cynical (no laughing), maybe it's from hearing my wife's dire predictions too often but I am starting to think it is a very real possibility. Hey any houses for sale in your neighborhood?
Lotsa turnover in our neighbourhood—c'mon up! But I'm more inclined to Flex's position that Trump is too lazy and senile to launch a coup. His modus operandi his entire life has been to bully and scam and then cut a deal when it turns south. Maybe the prospect of jail and business ruin would alter that, but it's been his style to find a way to weasel out when the heat gets close. Still, I wake up most mornings with the hope that he stroked out in the middle of the night.
I also have a tendency to imagine the worst or at least horrible scenarios. It may be a coping mechanism for dealing with the eventual less horrible outcomes.

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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Dr. Medulla » 11 Mar 2019, 10:08am

Flex wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:56am
Here's the basic map: https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential ... 53101.html

There are definitely several different avenues to the Dems winning in 2020, but it's worth remembering that Trump can lose some ground and still win the electoral college. Not a ton, but it's there.
Right, but, mind you, those three key states that made the difference—WI, MI, and PA—were won by a combined total of, I think, 200K votes. Again, that's a super narrow margin, and it was aided by Clinton doing nothing in those places.
Demographic trends are interesting, you're right that the landscape is very broadly getting less favorable for Trump, but it's a matter of where: gen z growth in, say, California or New York obviously does nothing for the Dem candidate while the Midwestern states continue to trend older, more conservative and whiter (that said, Trump's polling has been pretty bad in some of those states). Dems path to victory seems to me to claw back some Midwestern electoral votes and then pick up one or two of the more competitive southern states.
Right—no disagreement there. His tariff insanity, strikingly, hurts him most in those very states. His "trust me" boast from 2016 will be a lot harder sell there now.
I still think Trump probably wins, but I'm using the word "probably" deliberately - it's definitely not a forgone conclusion. And obviously a lot could look different in two years, and it IS hard to see anything but downside for Trump. He's not going to magically become a better candidate or president between now and the election.
And for the same reason I say he's probably going to lose unless the Democrats really fuck it up (like get caught rigging thing again for someone like Biden). If I'm a campaign manager who has his pick of sides for the more flexible path to victory, I want to sign on with the Democrats. They have to fuck it up to give Trump a solid chance.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Dr. Medulla » 11 Mar 2019, 10:09am

revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 10:05am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:34am
revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:25am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 9:18am
revbob wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 8:59am
I dont think its confidence that he will be re-elected (although the number of 1 and done presidents is pretty low, especially in my lifetime) as much as it is fear that he could be re-elected or like I mentioned refuse to step down claiming as you mention above(but not in the same context) voter fraud he and his supporters have been laying that groundwork especially after the 2018 elections.
Sure, I get the anxiety and cynicism. But stepping back and looking at building the required numbers to win enough states, I just don't see where Trump is in an enviable position at all. That he won as a fluke in 2016 and hasn't done well to grow his appeal in office just doesn't bode well.
I'm not normally that cynical (no laughing), maybe it's from hearing my wife's dire predictions too often but I am starting to think it is a very real possibility. Hey any houses for sale in your neighborhood?
Lotsa turnover in our neighbourhood—c'mon up! But I'm more inclined to Flex's position that Trump is too lazy and senile to launch a coup. His modus operandi his entire life has been to bully and scam and then cut a deal when it turns south. Maybe the prospect of jail and business ruin would alter that, but it's been his style to find a way to weasel out when the heat gets close. Still, I wake up most mornings with the hope that he stroked out in the middle of the night.
I also have a tendency to imagine the worst or at least horrible scenarios. It may be a coping mechanism for dealing with the eventual less horrible outcomes.
Total X-er quality. And it's one that I tend to default to emotionally.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by Kory » 11 Mar 2019, 3:03pm

Dr. Medulla wrote:
11 Mar 2019, 10:08am
And for the same reason I say he's probably going to lose unless the Democrats really fuck it up (like get caught rigging thing again for someone like Biden). If I'm a campaign manager who has his pick of sides for the more flexible path to victory, I want to sign on with the Democrats. They have to fuck it up to give Trump a solid chance.
It would take a lot to convince me that they won't completely fuck it up, though. But I'm a heavy cynic.
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