The Future of the Republican Party

[Flex]

I highly doubt they watched any of it. They already know what to think about it.

No, of course they didn't watch (Fox actually was airing commercial-free counter-programming the entire time). But I hope a few stray non-highly informed people caught some of it and got it in their soupy apathetic brains that these fuckers are actually fascists. Maybe won't make a difference electorally, but I figure you take every scrap of people figuring out what's actually up that you can get.

[Dr. Medulla]

If Garland doesn't do anything after this, then it really is just to show the country, and the world?, what happened.

My guess is that this is to provide cover for Garland to act so that it doesn't seem like a partisan act. Yes, to the GOP it always will, but this—I think—is about speaking to the squishy non-committed moderates that prosecution is about justice, not partisan politics. To people who have made up their mind one way or another, that's not the audience here.

[Joe Public]

That bit where the mob is chanting 'Nancy, Nancy" is so unsettling and sinister.

It's nice to know that, in the heat of white nationalist fervor, they can still find a place for misogyny...

[Dr. Medulla]

That bit where the mob is chanting 'Nancy, Nancy" is so unsettling and sinister.

It's nice to know that, in the heat of white nationalist fervor, they can still find a place for misogyny...

It's a mistake to think they're opposed to diversity. They hate non-evangelicals, non-whites, non-facists, women, queer people, environmentalists, pacifists …

[Dr. Medulla]

[Low Down Low]

[Flex]

Not to take away from the basic point that Biden's support is really weak, but that "other" at 7% stands out as something that will not happen at all in real life.

2 years is a real long time in politics. If a bunch of the shit that the presidency doesn't have a ton of control over - gas prices and inflation, primarily - get tamed and with Rs having already won back the house this year then Biden probably pretty easily wins reelection, especially against Trump. American voters, who are mostly just oinking little piggies at the slop trough, love "split government" and all that shit, so if nothing's on fire their little pea brains will light up at the idea of having a whole biden term of Working Together And Getting Things Done opportunities.

Now, if the economic picture doesn't stabilize all bets are off. As they should be if we're in the same boat as we are in now in 2 years (even if the answer we'll pick of "re-elect a fascist" as an extremely bad response).

EDIT: To be clear, I agree it's embarrassing how bad Biden's numbers are against trump, nonetheless. Also, corrected the other percentage.

[Flex]

Sorry, I'm feeling a little cranky this morning.

[Low Down Low]

Sorry, I'm feeling a little cranky this morning.

No need to apologise, it's great to get such a good perspective from folk on the ground over there. Is it pretty nailed on that it will be Biden himself that will go forward and how critical are the upcoming elections for him?

[Flex]

No need to apologise, it's great to get such a good perspective from folk on the ground over there. Is it pretty nailed on that it will be Biden himself that will go forward and how critical are the upcoming elections for him?

Yeah, the intrigue is if it's not Biden, due to age/political toxicity. It would be basically unheard of in modern American politics for a sitting president to not run for reelection. But there's been chatter about it since, well, since he was running the first time. The problem is the democratic bench is really, really thin. None of the folks who ran last time have really emerged as likely successes this next time around, and there aren't a ton of senior political talents that would make enticing general election candidates. I'm sure they'd find someone to prop up, but Biden may actually still be the least-bad of the bunch. I think if Biden wants to run again (and all this talk started because I guess he privately intimated during the last election that he was only interested in a single term, but has since walked that back a little), he'll be able to quickly lock up the party behind him. It would just be so counter to the way U.S. party politics work for him to run again AND for their to be an internal rebellion to oust him as head of the party.

I think the Jacobin, et al. folks agitating for a third Bernie candidacy are delusional, even though I love the guy. He's older than Biden and he actually did much, much worse in his second candidacy than his first. Not a great trajectory, even when you price in establishment shenanigans. THAT discussion it a totally damning indictment of the left's failure to develop its own talent and leadership pipeline, frankly (a problem mirrored with the democratic party generally).

Regarding this Fall's elections, some fair bit of blame will be hung on Biden - not unjustly - for what are likely to be pretty major Democratic losses (especially if the Dems lose the Senate as well, which despite being a down year for them they still have a good shot at keeping because the seats up are all pretty favorable to Dems). But people are quick to forget we've been in an age of thermostatic politics for a long time now. The sitting president's party usually suffers - often quite badly - in the mid-terms following a presidential election (barring some major rally-around-the-flag crisis like 9/11 happening). Party leaders are well aware of that and probably won't see losses as a reason to knife Biden in the back. He'll have to do one of America's "beloved" resets where he conveys how he understands the election results were voters' way of Sending A Message and he's going to reinvent his presidency. And oftentimes it works! Sitting presidents that don't fuck things up worse in the next couple years tend to cruise to reelection. Not an endorsement of his policies, but Clinton was one of the most successful example of a president in recent-ish history who seemed dead in the water partway through his first term and then completely rehabilitated himself. It happens, and pretty regularly. The difference is that we're even more thermostatic and polarized than the 90s so the amount that any president can climb in popularity is pretty limited, although it also means that disgruntled party members will almost always trudge back to the fold when the actual election happens.

Long way of answering "probably, and somewhat" lol

[Dr. Medulla]

The other huge unknowns are (a) what if Trump gets indicted (federally or in Georgia) and (b) what if Roe v Wade is overturned?

[Kory]

You are all much more optimistic than me. I'm convinced we're getting trump again in a couple years and then we get to live under fascism for the rest of our lives.

[Low Down Low]

Cheers again Flex, that was another great read. I'd never have imagined Bernie would be a contender ever again but it has struck me that I seem to hear less and less of AOC these days. I'm not even sure she'd be eligible to run for potus yet anyway?

I think what disappoints me about Biden is that after the election there was some talk about how he'd push left and be a real unifier within the party, but I'm not sure how much that has come to pass. Every so often he comes out with a grand statement, like supporting the unions or that time he spoke about banning vaccine patents, but I wonder how much he really means it. Then again, i don't know enough about the political landscape to pass judgement on how much slack we should cut him and, as I think you allude to above, a president is much more likely to be radical during his second term than in his first.

[Dr. Medulla]

Cheers again Flex, that was another great read. I'd never have imagined Bernie would be a contender ever again but it has struck me that I seem to hear less and less of AOC these days. I'm not even sure she'd be eligible to run for potus yet anyway?

I think what disappoints me about Biden is that after the election there was some talk about how he'd push left and be a real unifier within the party, but I'm not sure how much that has come to pass. Every so often he comes out with a grand statement, like supporting the unions or that time he spoke about banning vaccine patents, but I wonder how much he really means it. Then again, i don't know enough about the political landscape to pass judgement on how much slack we should cut him and, as I think you allude to above, a president is much more likely to be radical during his second term than in his first.

It's hard to underestimate how much Manchin and Sinema fucked up his initial efforts.

[Dr. Medulla]

You are all much more optimistic than me. I'm convinced we're getting trump again in a couple years and then we get to live under fascism for the rest of our lives.

I'm dubious about how much influence he actually has in the party relative to 2020. Trumpism, sure, but the man himself seems a shadow of his himself.