Coronavirus Thread of Doom

[Mimi]

What a year.

I'm not convinced it's ever going to end.

It's not. It's a virus. It's here to stay.

[Flex]

I remember when this started, I asked people about the long-term cultural changes that this would have, at several suggested that once it's "over," things would go back to February 2020. Anyone still think that?

I dunno about "go back to February 2020" but it's hard to say exactly what the long term repercussions really will be, especially if we're trying to assess ways society wouldn't have changed except for the virus. I tend to think that any ideas around how our day to day lives will be permanently altered are kinda overblown. Like, we're going to go back to having concerts and eating inside at restaurants once there is a vaccine and a lot of people are going back to an office. A lot of the economic and social stressors that have been exacerbated by covid were present already so maybe covid should be seen as more of an accelerant than anything.

And, obviously, if a working vaccine isn't developed and distributed widely enough to achieve herd immunity, all bets are off.

[Low Down Low]

I note in the uk there is some talk about switching to a 4 day working week. I seriously doubt this would ever happen under a conservative government but more and more people are contemplating it and it is gaining some traction at least. Ultimately i think the forces of reaction will press hard to get the rigged system as near back to its default settings as much as makes no difference, but some progressive ideas are at least being seeded and cities around the world with enlightened mayors are making very encouraging plans. That's as optimistic as i could be about things.

[Dr. Medulla]

I remember when this started, I asked people about the long-term cultural changes that this would have, at several suggested that once it's "over," things would go back to February 2020. Anyone still think that?

I dunno about "go back to February 2020" but it's hard to say exactly what the long term repercussions really will be, especially if we're trying to assess ways society wouldn't have changed except for the virus. I tend to think that any ideas around how our day to day lives will be permanently altered are kinda overblown. Like, we're going to go back to having concerts and eating inside at restaurants once there is a vaccine and a lot of people are going back to an office. A lot of the economic and social stressors that have been exacerbated by covid were present already so maybe covid should be seen as more of an accelerant than anything.

And, obviously, if a working vaccine isn't developed and distributed widely enough to achieve herd immunity, all bets are off.

I don't know if restaurants will be as common as they were. Frequent dining out is a fairly recent cultural phenomenon. Prior to the 80s, going out to eat was mostly for either the well to do or for special occasions. The economic hit on the cheaper restaurants plus the wariness of public gathering could well signal the end of that cultural ritual, returning dining out to the wealthy, while more people shift to delivery and eating in. I recall reading that upwards of 75% of restaurants might not make it thru. That's a high number but even, say, 50% would alter things considerably.

In Canada, the Liberal government is planning a massive overhaul to social spending, with all evidence suggesting moving to something like basic income, as well as commitment to a green economy. That wouldn't have happened pre-corona, but the emergency spending has altered both thinking and provided an opportunity. That would be a monumental shift if the relationship between citizen and state.

One fascinating hypothesis that I heard was that the longer this goes on, the more people will if not resent then treat as utilitarian internet-based communication. Face to face will be what is considered the goal and luxury. This would be true for kids who have experienced online schooling, that they'd grow up with a certain negativity toward social media. That would certainly require several years of this shit, but it's an idea worth paying attention to.

That said, I'll return to my original statement when the pandemic broke: if you can find a major crisis in the past that didn't leave a significant effect on its society—how people relate to each, their relationship to their government, the structure of its economy—I'd love to hear it.

edit: This is why I'm not as gloomy about a Biden presidency. Events have a way of pushing leaders against their history and inclinations. FDR is an excellent example here, as there was little in his background that suggested him to be an experimenter or proponent of government intervention, yet he presided over a radical transformation of state and citizen. This is not to say I expect Biden to lead the Green New Deal or any other amazing social democratic wish list, but that we can't confidently predict based on past behaviour given the magnitude of circumstances.

[revbob]

Will things go back to Feb 2020, not exactly but I think close enough. Remember there was the big flu pandemic in 1918 and a lot of the same shit was going on then. The key will be a vaccine and herd immunity right. And then people who lived with it will die off and it will be something future generations refer to. Some changes will be permanent or somewhat long lasting but some degree of normalcy will return.

I liken this to a forest fire that just burns everything to the ground but eventually a new forest grows in its place. it wont be exactly the same but some changes were going to come about anyway, covid has been a catalyst for some changes. People are moving out of big cities. Rents will drop and people who previously couldn't afford to live in them will and they will bring whatever they bring which will result in new small businesses, restaurants etc.

Im by no means making light of the devastation that has occurred but there will be some positive ramifications.

[JennyB]

I remember when this started, I asked people about the long-term cultural changes that this would have, at several suggested that once it's "over," things would go back to February 2020. Anyone still think that?

I dunno about "go back to February 2020" but it's hard to say exactly what the long term repercussions really will be, especially if we're trying to assess ways society wouldn't have changed except for the virus. I tend to think that any ideas around how our day to day lives will be permanently altered are kinda overblown. Like, we're going to go back to having concerts and eating inside at restaurants once there is a vaccine and a lot of people are going back to an office. A lot of the economic and social stressors that have been exacerbated by covid were present already so maybe covid should be seen as more of an accelerant than anything.

And, obviously, if a working vaccine isn't developed and distributed widely enough to achieve herd immunity, all bets are off.

I mean, people are already going back to their normal lives and we don't have a vaccine yet.

[Flex]

I mean, people are already going back to their normal lives and we don't have a vaccine yet.

Yeah, and I think it's gonna get worse again as a result. Especially with winter coming. It won't be as bad as March, because treatment is a lot better than it was, but we're in for a rude awakening in a couple months I think. If we really can't do anything to stave off the virus with a vaccine, I agree with Doc on some of the long term consequences of increased suspicion of (say) eating indoors and our view of things like internet connectivity if this keep dragging on. Unlike some other countries, I don't have any faith in our ability to coordinate public health policy to tamp down spread without a vaccine on a national scale (our local response has been quite good, I'm pleased to say, and better than I initially gave local electeds credit for), and frankly I'm worried about our ability to get enough people to take a vaccine to make enough of a difference in terms of making indoors safer again and such. I sounded sort of blase about these things in my post yesterday, but I should clarify that a ton depends on our public health policy which so far has been abysmal and even with more competent leadership is likely going to continue to be pretty suboptimal for a bunch of structural reasons we all discuss on the reg around here.

[revbob]

Im no anti-vaxxer but Im also distrustful of such a,"cure" being rammed thru so big business and this fuckwit can get back on track.

[Dr. Medulla]

There was some kind of poll I saw a few days ago that suggested a full 50% of Americans say they won't get vaccinated if/when one becomes available (I think Canada's split is 80/20ish). That's gonna rack up a lot more bodies. If you need a case study on the pernicious nature of ideology, anti-vax is just sitting there.

[Flex]

There was some kind of poll I saw a few days ago that suggested a full 50% of Americans say they won't get vaccinated if/when one becomes available (I think Canada's split is 80/20ish). That's gonna rack up a lot more bodies. If you need a case study on the pernicious nature of ideology, anti-vax is just sitting there.

it's utterly horrifying, and as i said on the tweeterz, if trump rolls out some faux vaccine prior to the election, it's just going to exacerbate vaccine skepticism when it turns out to be less-effective-than-advertised. there's definitely a very plausible path to a worst case scenario here that really well and truly fucks the US from a public health perspective for the forseeable future.

[Dr. Medulla]

There was some kind of poll I saw a few days ago that suggested a full 50% of Americans say they won't get vaccinated if/when one becomes available (I think Canada's split is 80/20ish). That's gonna rack up a lot more bodies. If you need a case study on the pernicious nature of ideology, anti-vax is just sitting there.

it's utterly horrifying, and as i said on the tweeterz, if trump rolls out some faux vaccine prior to the election, it's just going to exacerbate vaccine skepticism when it turns out to be less-effective-than-advertised. there's definitely a very plausible path to a worst case scenario here that really well and truly fucks the US from a public health perspective for the forseeable future.

The weird thing is, it's his base that are the most prominent skeptics. That's a strange dynamic at work.

[Kory]

It won't be as bad as March

This is reason enough for me to be skeptical about larger changes. As Jenny mentioned (and I can only speak locally and anecdotally), everything is pretty much back to normal already. If the resurgence won't be as bad as March was, I can't see many people worrying much about it. In Seattle, stores are PACKED, restaurants are being frequented, people are hanging out. The only real difference is the masks.

[Dr. Medulla]

[Flex]

LMAO

[Mimi]

I just found out that my nephew, his wife, and their daughter tested positive a few months ago. Their young son did not. Nephew lost his taste and smell and still hasn't gotten it back. That was the extent of their symptoms. No one was sick. This virus is weird.