The Trump observations thread

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JennyB
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Silent Majority wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 12:13pm
Today, I've accepted that Biden has a better than evens chance of winning and I'm happy as hell about it.
If yard signs are any indication, Biden is leading, even in this area, by a landslide. Fingers crossed.
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matedog
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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JennyB wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 1:57pm
Silent Majority wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 12:13pm
Today, I've accepted that Biden has a better than evens chance of winning and I'm happy as hell about it.
If yard signs are any indication, Biden is leading, even in this area, by a landslide. Fingers crossed.
Man, if someone had a Trump sign anywhere near my house, it would be a BIG deal. I definitely live in a bubble so I'm definitely not going to speculate on any election anymore.
Look, you have to establish context for these things. And I maintain that unless you appreciate the Fall of Constantinople, the Great Fire of London, and Mickey Mantle's fatalist alcoholism, live Freddy makes no sense. If you want to half-ass it, fine, go call Simon Schama to do the appendix.

JennyB
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Re: The Trump observations thread

Post by JennyB »

matedog wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 2:04pm
JennyB wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 1:57pm
Silent Majority wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 12:13pm
Today, I've accepted that Biden has a better than evens chance of winning and I'm happy as hell about it.
If yard signs are any indication, Biden is leading, even in this area, by a landslide. Fingers crossed.
Man, if someone had a Trump sign anywhere near my house, it would be a BIG deal. I definitely live in a bubble so I'm definitely not going to speculate on any election anymore.
I live in a suburban area in a very red state. There are some Trump signs around, but far more Biden. It seems different this time.
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matedog
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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JennyB wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 2:05pm
matedog wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 2:04pm
JennyB wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 1:57pm
Silent Majority wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 12:13pm
Today, I've accepted that Biden has a better than evens chance of winning and I'm happy as hell about it.
If yard signs are any indication, Biden is leading, even in this area, by a landslide. Fingers crossed.
Man, if someone had a Trump sign anywhere near my house, it would be a BIG deal. I definitely live in a bubble so I'm definitely not going to speculate on any election anymore.
I live in a suburban area in a very red state. There are some Trump signs around, but far more Biden. It seems different this time.
That's very hopeful to hear. I was completely caught off guard in 2016 (as most were), but the only place I ever saw Trump support was some random town (Berlin) in CT. I was shocked and assumed it was an anomaly.
Look, you have to establish context for these things. And I maintain that unless you appreciate the Fall of Constantinople, the Great Fire of London, and Mickey Mantle's fatalist alcoholism, live Freddy makes no sense. If you want to half-ass it, fine, go call Simon Schama to do the appendix.

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Re: The Trump observations thread

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There's was something in Politico the other day about yard signs.
Four years ago, a debate raged within the political class over the significance of yard signs—specifically, whether it mattered that Trump markings were ubiquitous outside of every big city and along every interstate while Hillary Clinton symbols were nowhere to be found. Some experts insisted this disparity held little predictive value; that even as a metric of intensity it did little to help illuminate potential voting behaviors. Others argued that, in fact, the intensity (or lack thereof) was the entire point; that the scale of yard signs offered a unique window into said voting behaviors, principally the attitudes toward both nominees from within their respective party bases.

In that regard, the results we saw in 2016—overwhelming support for Trump among conservative Republicans, contrasted with diminished enthusiasm for Clinton among key Democratic constituencies—suggested that, at least as one way into appraising base intensity, yard signs were a valuable measurement.

At the risk of fighting the last war, I’ve paid an unhealthy level of attention to yard signs over the past year, and particularly since Joe Biden sealed the Democratic nomination this summer. Having logged many dozens of hours this summer and fall driving around the country, two things have stood out.

First, the Trump/MAGA signage has multiplied in mind-boggling ways. Four years ago, it felt like the Republican nominee had reached a saturation point with his name dotting the landscapes of American communities. Not even close. This is obviously ballparking, but whereas in 2016 it seemed like we saw Trump logos on every ninth or 10th lawn, we now see them on every fifth or sixth lawn in those same neighborhoods. It’s a remarkable testament to the passion of the president’s base; it also indicates that the “shy Trump voter” is a thing of the past. The people who flew his flag in 2016 are still doing so; they’re now joined by countless more MAGA devotees, voters who might have once had reservations about Trump, or at least reservations about showing their support for him, but are no longer holding back. Whether the president wins a second term or not, this display of fervency reinforces my belief that we have never seen a politician with such a cult following, and we probably never will again.

The second thing that’s been striking is the Biden signage—not the volume of it, but rather the location. There’s no question Biden banners (and, more recently, Biden/Harris banners) are far outpacing the number of Clinton signs I saw four years ago. But that’s really not saying much. No, what’s been truly interesting is where the Biden posters are popping up. Just in the past few weeks, I’ve seen signs boosting the Democratic nominee (and affiliated liberal causes) in the blue-collar pockets of mid-Michigan and eastern Ohio; in the wealthy, well-educated, heavily Republican suburbs of Milwaukee and Cleveland; in the remote, rural towns of central Pennsylvania; and along the dusty desert highways of northern Arizona. When I say I’ve seen signs in these places, I don’t mean a couple small placards scattered here and there; I mean a conspicuous pattern of support, spread across areas where you wouldn’t expect to find it. And it hasn’t just been pro-Biden material; it’s been Black Lives Matter signs and LGBTQ rainbow flags and banners endorsing scientific expertise and women’s rights.

Does that mean Biden is going to ambush Trump in a bunch of red counties? No. But it does make me think he’ll close the margins in many of them. And, more broadly, it does suggest that lots of Democratic voters who were too lazy or too indifferent toward Clinton to put their partisan loyalty on display four years ago are suddenly invested in ways they previously weren’t. If that’s the case in Trump-friendly areas—places where it can’t be comfortable, or even socially acceptable, to air your rejection of the president—then it’s probably all the truer in Democratic strongholds around the country. (And yes, for the record, the pro-Biden signage in cities is far outpacing what was visible in 2016.)

Does this highly unscientific observation guarantee that Biden will defeat Trump? Nope. But it confirms that voter intensity won’t be a one-sided phenomenon on November 3.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... ngs-429075
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Flex
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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First, caveat as a pro campaign peon: musings in Politico aside, don't put too much stock in yard signs one war or the other. I definitely land in the "they don't do much to help campaigns and they aren't particularly accurate indicators of support" camp. But, whatever.

Anyways, I've been traveling western Colorado the last few months and the signage is kinda interesting: I live in the most blue part of the district and you have predominantly Dem signage but with Trumpers definitely unafraid to post out their own stuff. The Rs have a bunch of spots along the highway they know to put out giant campaign banners and highway signs for their candidates, so it gives more of a presence to these goofballs than what the demographics of the area really are.

As you move out west it gets more and more red and becomes Trump/Boebert country. Lots of billboards with a revealingly dressed Boebert holding guns with the word "FREEDOM" across the billboard. Insane shit.

In the western-most reaches of the district, I've had to be on calls with the Dem parties about what we do if/when the militias show up on election day and either try to turn away voters or actually start shooting. The sheriff that presides over the areas we're most concerned about is a militia supporter so he's no fucking help.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Flex wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 2:22pm
In the western-most reaches of the district, I've had to be on calls with the Dem parties about what we do if/when the militias show up on election day and either try to turn away voters or actually start shooting. The sheriff that presides over the areas we're most concerned about is a militia supporter so he's no fucking help.
That those kinds of conversations have to be had, and not as weird musings, is mind-boggling. How is that not prima facie evidence of social disintegration? People point to the late 60s for talking about polarization and the country falling apart, but no one would have thought about insane shit like that.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Dr. Medulla wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 3:07pm
That those kinds of conversations have to be had, and not as weird musings, is mind-boggling. How is that not prima facie evidence of social disintegration? People point to the late 60s for talking about polarization and the country falling apart, but no one would have thought about insane shit like that.
Yeah, I basically said the same thing to my candidate after our last meeting on it. I never thought in a million years I'd have to think through these scenarios (and really, the answer is just: don't let anyone under the age of 18 volunteer for any polling place related activities, make sure everyone knows to start recording everything they can with their phones if a confrontation starts, try to get in touch with the local PD before the sheriff's office if something is really wrong, and here are the numbers for both local attorneys who are willing to help out as well as some state party folks who are going to be in kind of a statewide command center to deal with such things. Other than that, there's not much to do. Hopefully the day goes quietly).
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Gift means poison in German, by the way.
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Olaf wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 3:42pm
Gift means poison in German, by the way.
Trump means fart here. ;)
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Marky Dread wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 3:55pm
Olaf wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 3:42pm
Gift means poison in German, by the way.
Trump means fart here. ;)
:lol:

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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Dr. Medulla wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 2:17pm
There's was something in Politico the other day about yard signs.
my belief that we have never seen a politician with such a cult following, and we probably never will again
Does he mean "within one lifetime in the States?"
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Trump has an uneven atom tan.
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Dr. Medulla
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Kory wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 4:06pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 2:17pm
There's was something in Politico the other day about yard signs.
my belief that we have never seen a politician with such a cult following, and we probably never will again
Does he mean "within one lifetime in the States?"
Yeah, I'm not sure what basis he has for thinking Trump's following is a one-off thing. Maybe he's unique, maybe he's setting a pattern. Who the fuck knows yet.
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Flex
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Re: The Trump observations thread

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Dr. Medulla wrote:
14 Oct 2020, 4:30pm
Yeah, I'm not sure what basis he has for thinking Trump's following is a one-off thing. Maybe he's unique, maybe he's setting a pattern. Who the fuck knows yet.
Not going to predict the future, lots can happen and who the fuck really knows how society will react to the trump era going forward, but agree with you that it doesn't seem obvious to me that, say, tucker carlson couldn't just replicate the trump playbook in 4 or 8 years or whatever and do basically the same thing but with more calculated viciousness. Maybe it won't happen, but I'd say there's no way to sit here today and foreclose that possibility.

I have come around to the idea that obvious lizard people like tom cotton aren't going to be able to use the trump playbook simply because they're the kind of pencil-neck dorks that trump's base despises almost as much as women and minorities. they need tv star type people to feed their hatred.
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